Good news...El Nino is Spanish for "The Nino!"
I couldn't resist the late, great Chris Farley's weather forecast for El Nino. So that's the prediction this year which is great for NoCal rainfall. Read more about what that means here. El Nino courtesy of UCSD. And to put this all into perspective, here's a report on another El Nino back in 1997 and it's rainfall just in San Francisco alone...
What past Type 1 El Niño events tell us about San Francisco rainfall in the winter?
a. AS THE PRESENT EL Niño PERSISTS THROUGH THE WINTER, IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT GREATER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 6 out of 8 past Type 1 El Niños (75% of an admittedly small sample) had greater than normal precipitation. Hence, the concerns that the upcoming winter (1997-1998) will be wetter than normal appear reasonable.
b. ALSO, AS THE PRESENT EL Niño PERSISTS THROUGH THE WINTER, IT IS REASONABLE TO PREPARE FOR MUCH HEAVIER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION (defined as greater than roughly 170% of the normal rainfall--35.70"). 3 out of the 8 past Type 1 El Niños (82-83, 72-73 and 57-58) had about 170% (or greater) of the normal precipitation. Again, this is a small sample upon which to make generalizations. However, the history of these recent events suggests that San Franciscans should be prepared for a winter potentially much wetter than normal.
Read more about the reports here. El Nino 1997 courtesy of SFSU.
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